Florida bricked 12%, now a full-blown toss-up at 50% for Romney. If Obama takes Florida there is literally no path for Romney. Game over.
Romney picked up 11% in Ohio, now 30%, so not terribly disconcerting.
Virginia picked up 20% in Virginia, flipping what WAS 40% into 60%. Virginia has 13 votes.
Iowa dropped 7%, now 26%. Romney is probably dead in the water.
New Hampshire dropped 10%, now 22%, also probably DOA to the Republican column.
So here's the breakdown and I'm going to try to make this as simple as possible, which is not exactly easy...
If we make one simple set of assumptions -- that Obama takes Wisconsin (10 votes), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4), Mitt Romney MUST win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado.
Romney's numbers in each of these states:
North Carolina: 80%
Since I took the last numbers and wrote all this, Romney has cratered to 17% in Ohio (ie, not reflected in the graph below). I could rewrite it all with new numbers but then they'd be wrong by the time I was done and f*ck that.