Thursday, November 15, 2012

Where You're At

Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, surrogate for the Romney campaign, fiercely shot back at Mitt Romney’s claim Wednesday that President Barack Obama outmatched the 2012 Republican presidential nominee by offering "gifts" to African-Americans, Hispanics and young voters.

"I absolutely reject that notion. ... I don't think that represents where we are as a party and where we're going as a party. ... That has got to be one of the most fundamental takeaways from this election."

Actually, Bobby, if there's any takeaway to be had, this view of the 47% is PRECISELY where you are today as a party.

That's why you lost.

I know there's a lot of navel gazing going on but isn't that a given? Isn't that your jumping-off point, not what remains to be discerned?

As for where you're heading, you're right, but what it implies for your party is disastrous. It's spectacular irony that party of global warming deniers, and whose electorate deeply rejects the mechanics of evolution, faces certain destruction by being unwilling and unable to adopt systemic changes because you fear those corrections will kill your party just as assuredly.

The problem your party faces comes from a built-in inerrancy doctrine, all truths obtained by way of God or Reagan and not necessarily in that order. It's truth and, as such, it's set in stone and not open for interpretation or debate. It's the opposite of "big tent" which, until now, has been your bedrock. You have employed a single, comforting, cogent message to great effect for decades while Democrats, seeking to be a voice for many different views, have largely been unable to offer a coherent counter message.

Now this bedrock, this unyielding lump of divinely-inspired conservative principle, stands to be your undoing. What substantive platform modifications can you make that will not cause your base to exodus? Immigration reform? Reproductive rights? Progressive taxation?

If you replace a Mercedes Benz, part-by-part, with a Jeep, at what point does it become a Jeep?

If you replace the GOP policy with Democratic policy, at what point does the GOP become the Democratic party?

Evangelical leader Gary Bauer argues that the election loss was due to a party too focused on appealing to moderate voters.

"I think it's due, at least in part, to folks in our party that seem intent on attacking the fact that we're the conservative party in the United States. ... There's no yearning by the American people for a second pro-abortion party. I mean, we've already got one of those."

The Republican party has two options; do what they've been doing and enjoying the same results, or internecine civil war.

Bobby, I can give you two guesses as two which path the GOP leadership takes but you're only going to need one.

:popcorn:

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Oh, That's Just My Day Job

"Power to the people Marty."
"Power to the people, Coz."

- Sneakers

http://sumofus.org/campaigns/walmart-strike/

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Back Yonder

Brings whole new meaning to "Big Gulp," dunnit?

What It Said vs. What It Means

Accuser of Elmo Puppeteer Recants

I nearly had a haht attahk when I saw the accusation, beyond glad to see Clash has been vindicated.

Opposite Day

"I have been ambivalent about the immigration issue for many years. But the vote this week was extremely racially polarized, and deliberately so. Sixty-two percent of whites voted for Romney. Ninety percent of black voters and 71% of Hispanic voters went for Obama. That’s how the race groups working for the Democrat Party want it. They are very very effective at keeping the races politically polarized."

     - J. Christian Adams, writer for PJMedia and election lawyer who served in the Voting Rights Section at the U.S. Department of Justice

That's rich.

Despite an election that should have taught conservatives that the electorate does not share their views, nor does it reject Obama in apocalyptic terms like they do, the wingnuts continue to perceive their universe not how it actually exists but how they'd like for it to be.

"Racially polarized" means ethnic groups were either sharply for or against a candidate and yet Obama was popular among whites, blacks, hispanics and asians.

56% of Obama's support came from whites, 25% from Black, 14% from Latino and 4% from Asian.

On the other hand, 42.5% of Romney's 48.1% of the vote count was from white voters, so a stunning 88% of Romney's support was white. In fact, Romney had less support from all non-white voters combined than Obama had from Latinos alone.

Only in right-win la-la land can a candidate with virtually non-existant cross-ethnic appeal NOT be the polarizing figure.

Only in right-wing la-la land is the party that appealed broadly across the ethnic spectrum the one engaging in race polarization politics.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Hannibal

I love it when a plan comes together.

Obama Kuti

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Saturday, November 10, 2012

A 'lil Ole Fashioned Public Humiliation for the Plebes

Is it fair?

I don't recall Bernie Maddoff having to wear a sandwich board in front of anyone or anything. In fact I don't EVER recall seeing anyone making more than $50k/yr ever being sentenced to public humiliation in the United States, have you?

Money doesn't talk, it f*cking yodels, kids, and a lack of money is a target painted on your backside.

Justice might be blind but it can tell the difference between a nickel and a benjamin with its eyes shut, that's for sure.

Bedrock

There's been a lot of shit going around about a number of employers either attempting to "educate" their employees as to the disastrous policies of the Obama administration and now, upon his re-election, firing them, or simply targeting specific employees for their vote.

I was surprised to learn that this is not illegal. Sorta.

Setting aside class protections which may exists in a few scattered states, Federal Law 18 USC § 594 reads:

"Whoever intimidates, threatens, coerces, or attempts to intimidate, threaten, or coerce, any other person for the purpose of interfering with the right of such other person to vote or to vote as he may choose, or of causing such other person to vote for, or not to vote for, any candidate for the office of President, Vice President, Presidential elector, Member of the Senate, Member of the House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, or Resident Commissioner, at any election held solely or in part for the purpose of electing such candidate, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both."

Since the law makes it illegal to influence a vote, which necessarily must happen before the voting date occurs, my reading of the law is that firing a person for voting a particular way, or failing to vote a particular way, would not be illegal.

Intimating one would or might fire an employee for voting for a particular candidate, or failing to vote for a particular candidate, regardless of whether or not the threat was consummated, would be illegal.

This is important because the burden of proof is not upon the employee to prove whether the firing was related to the vote, which is obviously difficult to prove. Rather, it hinges upon the threat before the fact, which might be difficult to prove but is an action on the part of the employer as opposed to a state of mind of that employer.

Whether or not a statement like "If Obama is elected I will have to let some people go" is vague enough to get away with, I don't know, but the sheer number of conservatives who are full-on giddy at the attempt to tamper with democracy is disturbing. This is not a handfull of wingnuts, there are literally thousands of Republicans in ONE thread on ONE facebook page not only defending the tactic but encouraging more of it.

I find it difficult to imagine something more central to the American ethos than the right to vote, unmolested, nor would I be engaging in demagoguery by suggesting those who would champion such a tactic be summarily rounded up and deposited just past the border.

Having found ours lacking, perhaps they can coerce each other into a more perfect union.

Thursday, November 08, 2012

:Facepalm:

"You know your party is in trouble when people ask did the rape guy win, and you have to ask which one?"

     - Alec Baldwin

Red Pill

I've been so jacked into the post-election right wingnut media stream that today I got into my car, picked up the headphone end of my cassette adapter and tried to plug it into my ear. The 1/8" PLUG FFS. I haven't heard Elia laugh that hard in weeks.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Somebody Get The Hose

Et Tu, Romney?

The Romney camp has knives out for Chris Christie. What did he do, exactly? Oh, right, he treated Obama like his party didn't matter, like a guy trying to protect his constituents would act toward another guy who helped him do it.

What's that called again? It's on the tip of my tongue ...

Oh, right, BIPARTISANSHIP. Something the Romney camp swore they'd be FOR.

I do not think that word means what they think it means.

Remember all that gushing adoration for the people on the streets post-Sandy, about how they didn't ask each other if they were Republican or Democrat, they just pitched in to help their fellow man and were grateful for whatever help they got?

Now we eviscerate our politicians for thinking about nothing but what the country needs and we have the chutzpah to wonder why they never f*cking do it?

We wonder what's wrong with the country.

What's wrong with it is US.

Samsara

An all-but-one sweep of the swing states. Once Florida is tabulated, 332 to 206. A 126-vote lead in the electoral college is not a mere blowout, it's a veritable beating.

The popular vote was within 2.5m but let's not forget why we have the electoral college; it prevents a candidate with lopsided regional popularity -- for example, massively popular in the north and the opposite in the south -- from being elected, thereby failing to represent a full half of the country.

It forces candidates to have broad appeal. It forces a candidate to represent the centrist interests and values of the country at large.

This leads us to the obvious question, "What are these interests and values?"

Same sex marriage amendments pass in Maine and Maryland, the first states to do so by vote and not legislation or court order. Minnesota voters shoot down a same-sex constitutional amendment.

Marijuana flat-out legalized in Washington and Colorado.

And Obama elected in a landslide.

Yet somehow conservative talk radio is awash with two interpretations of the election results; Obama doesn't have a mandate and the electorate wants more conservatism.

Let them keep thinking it. When you do not see something clearly, what you perceive as a solution is often just digging the hole deeper. Samsara.

This election was brought to you by the words "Tea" and "Party" and the conservative fetishization of party purity.

TYVM.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Goodnight, Farewell auf Wiedersehen Goodbye Pt 2

Goodnight, Farewell auf Wiedersehen Goodbye Pt 1

Well CNN and Fox can take their slow-ass time calling this one, I have less obvious things that need attending-to.

Romney's hold on Florida looks like an ICBM and I'm talking about the "ballistic" part, no so much on the "intercontinental." Seriously. Looks just like of one of those cherub statues peeing in a koi pond, which is just ripe with metaphor, all things considered.

Ohio is 10% which means the transaction fee to sell is more than the worth of the stock.

Colorado is down to 36%.

Wisconsin is 11% after a brief rally.

Stick a fork in it kids, this party is done. If you still want moar, tune into the wingnut talk radio circular firing squad, I predict some full-bore freakouts in 3, 2, 1...

The Ohio Lynchpin

Jumping Jehosophat.

Florida bricked 12%, now a full-blown toss-up at 50% for Romney. If Obama takes Florida there is literally no path for Romney. Game over.

Romney picked up 11% in Ohio, now 30%, so not terribly disconcerting.

Virginia picked up 20% in Virginia, flipping what WAS 40% into 60%. Virginia has 13 votes.

Iowa dropped 7%, now 26%. Romney is probably dead in the water.

New Hampshire dropped 10%, now 22%, also probably DOA to the Republican column.

So here's the breakdown and I'm going to try to make this as simple as possible, which is not exactly easy...

If we make one simple set of assumptions -- that Obama takes Wisconsin (10 votes), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4), Mitt Romney MUST win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado.

Romney's numbers in each of these states:

Florida: 50%
Ohio: 30%
North Carolina: 80%
Virginia: 60%
Colorado: 46%

Since I took the last numbers and wrote all this, Romney has cratered to 17% in Ohio (ie, not reflected in the graph below). I could rewrite it all with new numbers but then they'd be wrong by the time I was done and f*ck that.

From "Unlikely" to "GFY"

Jesus. Big moves.

Bad for Romney:

Florida: -8%
Ohio: -13%
Wisconsin: -11%
Iowa: -14%

Good for Romney:

New Hampshire: +7%

This puts Florida MAYBE back in play and pushes Virginia and Iowa from "maybe" into "gfy" territory.

It's not impossible this could shift to Romney's favor but the big EC states (Pennsylvania, Ohio) aren't anywhere close and not trending and the smaller EC states need to break in clusters that seem to be even less likely.

The numbers.

Options Narrowing for Romney

Romney is making some threatening inroads but it doesn't look to be enough, even if we give him a lot of benefit of the doubt, as it were.

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Florida and North Carolina go to Romney.

If we also concede Virginia (46%), Colorado (46%) AND Iowa (47%), that still puts him at 263 electoral votes.

At 263, neither Nevada nor New Hampshire can put him over the top (only 6 and 4 electoral college votes, respectively) and the remaining states in play are all but confirmed for Obama; Pennsylvania (14%), Ohio (32%), Michigan (10%), Wisconsin (24%), Minnesota (9%).

Here's the latest numbers.

Betfair Tanks

The odds Betfair is laying for Romney just dropped off a cliff, -6% in the couse of a few minutes.

Markets Beginning to Pivot

Looks like some change is showing up in the numbers, albeit minor so far. All of these numbers are from Romney's perspective.

Specifically, Pennsylvania is -4% but that's not terribly significant, we're talking 19.6 => 15.8. Tho Ryan is on the phone right now telling Hannity that Pennsylvania is "in play."

Colorado is -4.8%, 44.9% => 40.1%.

Wisconsin is +4.2%, 20.2% => 24.4%.

Numbers Update

Decided to change things up a wee bit for my 3pm update. Nothing dramatic, I've just now got states with more electoral votes being a darker shade of blue.

This is from Romney's perspective.

Free Markets Hate the GOP, Apparently

Not much has changed since this morning.

InTrade has Obama with 305 EV's, Romney with 235.

Romney still looks likely to take Florida (68.3%) and North Carolina (80.0%) but Romney is down 19.1% in Colorado and down 14.3% in Virginia. Everywhere else there's a 20% gap or greater.

Romney is down a jaw-dropping 39.8% in Ohio.

But every year I make the mistake of following election day from the moment I get up and I should know by now to not look at anything until about 3pm at the earliest. =)

Here's the Election Markets on the swing states updated every 60 seconds.

Pinnacle Drops Out, Geraldo Verbally Pats Woman on the Ass

Pinnacle just dropped off the map, no longer accepting wagers and so they will not be included in future graphs.

On a humorous note, I just heard Geraldo Rivera say goodbye to a guest on his show and added "...and you're easy on the eyes."

What year is this again?

Election Markets: Gap Between Candidates Now Exceeds 50%

We're seeing the overseas books keeping on with their steady, less-volatile march toward Obama.

The domestic books are breaking hard to catch up over the last two days; IEM moved sharply yesterday and is evening out, InTrade's move is less sharp but prolonged.

The difference between the two candidates passed 50% yesterday with the current span at 53.7%.

As far as EC goes, Mitt looks very strong in Florida and a lock in North Carolina but the only other swing state where Romney is within 20% of Obama in Virginia (40.1% vs. 60.0%).

If we assume Romney takes NC and VA and the rest go to Obama, that's 235, leaving Romney 35 short. That's going to be a challenge.

All graphics today will be the same data for 11/5 and earlier with 11/6 data changing.

Monday, November 05, 2012

Markets > Polls

The free markets have not been kind to the free marketer today.

The gap between Romney and Obama widened 3-10% depending on who you're looking at.

As for the Electoral College and Romney's path to 270, he's looking strong in Florida and North Carolina, an underdog within striking distance in Colorado (-5%) and Virginia (-12%) but literally, that's it.

Everywhere else he's a 2:1 dog.

If the markets are accurate, and they are notoriously difficult to beat, then this race is over. I'm not counting anything until ...you know, whenever the Supreme Court picks a winner, but I'll take markets over polls any day of the week.

Fluid Like Dogsh*t on a Vermont Doorstep in December

zZzZzzzzz.

Where We Started

As of 2pm, slight edge toward Romney, current numbers are about the same when I started @ 8am.

Rush Limbaugh: Cannot Bring Himself to Admit Obama Killed bin Laden

Maybe it's all the Oxycontin.

Rush Limbaugh freaks out about Obama's job approval ratings in the wake of Hurricane Sandy and how Obama's ratings haven't been this high since ...since ...lord, Rush just can't remember when they were this high...

Rush Limbuagh: Politicians That Come Out Of Ohio Are/Have "Dry Balls?"

Rush Limbaugh is losing his mind, it's pretty awesome.

For example, just now he said politicians that come out of Ohio have "dry balls." I have no idea what that means but it's funny.

Non Update Update

The numbers have shifted by a whopping 0.5%. Not much to report.

Imus: Dick Morris Has Been in the Back of the Hotel with a Dog Collar On With a Hooker

Don Imus upon hearing that Dick Morris has predicted Romney by a landslide:

"That boy's been back in the hotel with a dog collar on. By the hooker. C'mon dude. That boy's lost his mind."

It's gonna be a fun day...

Election Markets Overnight

I'll be tracking the election markets hourly and probably posting every 3-4 hours.

Overnight there were some changes, most dramatic, one mild, all benefitting Obama.

Changes in terms of gap between the candidates:

InTrade: +7.2%
IEM: +1.1%
Betfair: +10.4%
Pinnacle: 9.9%

And overnight, Art Garfunkel turned 71.

Sunday, November 04, 2012

GOP Acts to Disenfranchise Voters in Ohio

To all those who naively believe -- or intentionally pretend -- that the GOP push for Voter ID laws isn't about disenfranchising voters (that'd be you, @), we have more obvious and patently anti-democratic tactics from the GOP in Ohio.

A few weeks ago, Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted successfully reduced early-voting weekends from one to five. Why? Because early voting on the weekends helps blue collar workers who might otherwise not be able to vote. A last-minute decision by the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals forced Husted to reinstate the last weekend.

Darn.

Last Friday, at 6pm -- the last possible moment such an order could have been executed -- Husted issued a directive contrary to his own standard in how ballots are accepted.

In short, the standard Husted endorsed, and the process Ohio agreed to in a consent decree, declares that if a ballot is missing the type of ID used to verify the identity of the voter, the poll worker fills in this information.

Viz:

Ohio Rev. Code § 3505.181(B)(6) provides that, once a voter casting a provisional ballot proffers identification, "the appropriate local election official shall record the type of identification provided, the social security number information, the fact that the affirmation was executed, or the fact that the individual declined to execute such an affirmation and include that information with the transmission of the ballot . . . ."

The directive Husted entered at the last minute was to require that the voter enter this information themselves. Now, if the ballot is information is missing, the ballot worker fills in nothing, the poll worker does nothing, the information is missing and the ballot is not counted

But, you know, Republicans ONLY concern is that no voter fraud transpires.

Ayuh.

Election Market Numbers for November 4, 2012

Your 2012 Election Market numbers for the Sunday, November 4th, 2012.

We're beginning to see a bit of a rift between the US-based markets; Intrade moved 2% in Romney's direction, IEM did just the opposite.

The pro sports books have remained stable for the last two days.

The graph doesn't reflect this but Intrade has had the Electoral College at 281 for Obama, 235 for Romney every day except one (10/27). In the last three days, Obama's count has bumped to 290 thanks to Colorado occasionally moving from "tossup" to "leaning democrat."

Obama is averaging 72%, Romney is averaging 28%, a 46% spread with a little over two days left until the polling stations close.

GOGOGO.

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Election Market Numbers for November 3, 2012

Your 2012 Election Market numbers for the day.

The pro books edged slightly toward Romney, the academic markets didn't move much.

Obama is averaging 72.1%, Romney is averaging 28.1, a 44% spread.

Friday, November 02, 2012

Buckyballs Banned

AND NO MORE HAPPINESS!

For F*ck's Sake, Postpone the NYC Marathon

UPDATE [17:18 EST] NYC MARATHON CANCELLED.

The decision to divert critical resources (generators, police) from the rescue effort to the NYC Marathon is unconscionable.

What the hell is Bloomberg thinking?

<edit>
I'm going to roll that back a little, Ed Koch just got on the air and defended the continuation of the marathon, apparently there is no shortage of generators, they're readily available.

I'm not unsympathetic to the argument that the marathon acts as a morale boost.

I'm still skeptical the police can't be used, however, I just got a dispatch from a fb friend saying they need people to monitor emergency work sites, direct traffic, etc.
</edit>

Post Despondency

Today's Election Market numbers.

I've changed the colors up a bit to make differentiating between them easier.

IEM has joined the professional books in tanking Romney, only InTrade is holding the line, three of the four markets dropping the GOP challenger 2.5-3% over night.

The wingnuts have skipped from denial right to depression, completely skipping anger and bargaining in the K├╝bler-Ross Stages of Grief.  I think they're going to slip back to anger in the final 48 hours.


High-Speed Photography Turns Water Droplets Into Liquid Sculptures

Seems ham-handed to mention Harold Edgerton but it also seems inappropriate to not.

Unemployment Steady, Conservatives Weep


Remember when the September jobs report came out, 114,000 jobs added, unemployment at 7.8%, the lowest in Obama's presidency, and conservatives had themselves a temper tantrum, claiming "these Chicago guys" (Obama & surrogates) had pressured the Bureau of Labor Statistics to put out bunk numbers?

October numbers out today, conservatives were certain those numbers would expose the lie.  Unemployment is at 7.9%, 171,000 jobs added.  This is nothing to cheer about to be sure but I'm listening to Don Imus and he sounds so deflated.

Haven't heard a single one even mention the September accusations much less hear the party of personal responsibility acknowledge the accusation was bullshit.

Christie Destroys Fox's Doocy, Samantha Bee Air Jerks on Jon Stewart

One of the best Daily Show clips in recent memory.

Steve Doocy of Fox News hopefully and impolitically suggests to Chris Christie -- governor of New Jersey, 2012 GOP Convention Keynote Speaker and Romney surrogate -- that Romney might "do some storm-related events" with Christie.

Christie destroys him on the spot and tells Doocy precisely what he thinks of political grandstanding when 2.4m of his constituents are suffering.

In boxing terms, Doocy would have been out cold before his head hit the canvas.

Plus we get the bonus visual of Samantha Bee performing an extended air jerk ASL-style which is itself a reason to watch.